The Sahara, What now?
After nine rounds of informal negotiations, we are again deadlocked. That Morocco has agreed to discuss the situation of human rights in the Sahara or about natural resources in this region, a requirement of it vis-à-vis the Polisario, has done nothing to advance the negotiations . The case is stalled and could sink into the quagmire.
Source : https://www.marocafrik.com/english/The-Sahara-What...
On May 18, Morocco, after reflection and a marathon tour of its two foreign ministers in the capitals and the United Nations,announced the withdrawal of its confidence in the special envoy of UN Secretary General, Christopher Ross.
At the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, it is argued that this initiative was taken to inject new momentum to negotiations. It goes without saying that this is not the only reason that led Morocco to challenge the special envoy of Ban Ki-Moon. The act was approved today, what do we do then? Now what?, One is tempted to say. Although, at the time of going to press, the Special Envoy Christopher Ross is still in office,obviously his departure is a matter of time.
The decision to end his mandate was not taken overnight. However, "the essence of his mission is that when one party withdraws its confidence, he can not continue in his mission. Rumors that the Secretary General may require maintaining his position as his special envoy are unfounded. The special envoy is here, at the wish the Houston Accords (1991), to build trust and reconcile points of view between the parties. He can no longer continue in his mission when he becomes an element of tension, "said Abdelmajid Belghazal, specialist in the Sahara who participated in the design of the Moroccan autonomy plan.
It was also the case for the two predecessors of Ross, former U.S. Secretary of State James Backer (1997-2004) and the Dutch diplomat Peter Van Walsum (2005-2008). The most likely scenario, say sources familiar with the matter is that the special envoy on his own decides to retire. Its mandate, in fact, to this term in June and as did his predecessor, Peter Van Walsum, he may submit his resignation.
Meanwhile, the UN Secretary-General would have already started looking for a replacement who is acceptable to all parties in the conflict.
Deadlock and lack of perspective
He is involved, again, a series of negotiations, or entering the Security Council, before appointing a new envoy. How long will this take? Nobody knows. What is known is that between the resignation of Van Walsum and the appointment of Christopher Ross,it took nearly four months.
So we are again in a flutter. Much more, says Mohamed Benhammou, university professor and president of the Moroccan Centre for Strategic Studies, "the record is de facto an impasse because of the position of Algeria, because the positions and choices of the Polisario are actually dictated by it. This rigid position recorded in the file and the stalemate in a succession of absences of evolution and results.
" Therefore, we know in advance every April, when the Security Council is asked to decide on the fate of MINURSO's mandate that it be extended and, since Christopher Ross chose the strategy of informal meetings, the final communiqué of one of these meetings would inevitably announce the next meeting. All of which suggests to Abdelmajid Belghazal that "somewhere it is intended that the record fails to leave the status quo.
There are no signs that the international community really wants to impose a rapid resolution of the case. This while
ensuring that the tension between the parties does not reach a level that would encourage them to take up arms. " Indeed, Mohamed
Benhammou approves, "the international community, at least some parts, give the impression of taking an ambiguous and confusing position.
For, while expressing clear support to the project of autonomy proposed by Morocco, while presenting this project as credible, serious and as a project that provides concrete solutions to overcome this crisis, they do nothing for fear of offending Algeria, the regional energy power. "
To have lasted so long, what advantage is there for any party? "All we can say is that this situation is not very
comfortable for anybody," said Ahmed Salem Latafi, Corcas member of the Politburo and the PPS, in charge of the Sahara. Benhammou yet made the following observation: "The strategic break and dislocation experienced by North Africa last year created a new geopolitical situation that calls for the creation of a new regional order and requires an integration Maghreb and this, especially since its near where the South experienced a serious situation that presents a real danger to the security and stability in the region. "
Those who benefit from the conflict
Similarly, what does not bode well, in addition to the proliferation of weapons and various illegal activities, is that the region has just experienced a precedent. "For the first time in the world, Al Qaeda has proclaimed, through one of its offshoots, Ansar Eddine, an Islamic state in northern Mali," says Mohamed Benhammou. This context of serious concern should prompt the international community to support a quick resolution of the Sahara conflict. For, he concludes, "at this juncture, the extension of the Sahara conflict and the maintenance of this source of tension may be very costly for the entire region."
Theoretically, all these considerations argue, indeed, for fast resolution of the issue. Except that the reality is more complex than it appears. For, according to Abdelmajid Belghazal, maintaining the status quo benefits everyone except the Moroccan state and the Sahrawi population still living in deplorable conditions in the Tindouf camps.
First, he says, it benefits certain international interests, primarily those related to energy. Secondly, it is naturally the Polisario, or
rather the direction of the front, which derives a large profit. This fully exploits politically the conflict. "The logic of
the Polisario leaders is simple: as long as this conflict is not resolved, they consider themselves at war and therefore there is no question that there is a change in the direction of the front." However, a source explains Sahrawi Polisario fringe does not hide his fears that the process is bogged down at the point of not offering a clear perspective on the action to be taken. This wing of the organization fears that Morocco benefits from this slump to accelerate the implementatio
This all, the source added, "the chaotic situation in the Sahel and the handling of Northern Mali by Islamist groups complicates the situation. No more capitals in the world, except Algiers, seriously believes in the story of a Sahrawi republic. That's why the most sceptical among the Polisario leaders are in the clash of Morocco with Christopher Ross is a potential risk that would not necessarily affect their calculations, nor those of their ally Algeria.
Algeria, itself, benefits from this situation. Because, as claimed by the head of government in an interview recently, the Spanish daily El Pais, "if Algeria willing, the Sahara problem could be solved in days or weeks." Of course, Algeria was quick to deny any involvement in this matter. Nevertheless, as once told Youssef Amrani, Minister for Foreign Affairs, "where I am and whenever there Algeria always an opponent in front of me. Each time a Moroccan diplomat makes a move at an embassy or chancery to explain the Moroccan position on the conflict,
his vis-à-vis Algeria is quick to adopt an approach opposite to expose the Polisario " .
After 36 years of conflict, nothing seems to have changed. "The Algerian government says Abdelmajid Belghazal, is driven by its hegemonic ambitions in the region.
He justifies his position with the Algerian people by a desire to confront what it calls intent to expand in Morocco. It therefore continues to support the Polisario and mobilizes it to his diplomacy and huge foreign reserves it is with Western banks as a kind of bribery that does not dare say their name. " Mohamed Benhammou explains the unwavering support of the Polisario in Algeria by another factor:
"Any change in the direction of democratization in theregion is perceived as a threat by the authorities in Algeria."
Nobody can fire even a single bullet
Question: can this lack of perspective does push the Polisario to opt for climbing? Because it became a ritual in recent years.
Between rounds of negotiations, the Polisario has nothing better to do than to threaten the recovery of weapons. "Indeed,says Belghazal it is a threat that the Polisario agitated whenever tensions inside camps graze social explosion. It is a way to appease these social tensions. In the field, the choice of the resumption of weapons is in the hand of anyone. No one can fire a single shot in this region. " The threat of retaliation is thus armed, he says, a way to pressure the international community and blackmail of the population in Tindouf camps.
Still faced with such a picture, Morocco can not stay with its hands tied. Youssef Amrani argues: "The status quo is untenable.
" Morocco has indeed some playing cards. Irrespective of its motivations, the decision to withdraw its confidence in the special envoy was not easy. It is, in itself, a break in a process that could, if continued further, eroding ultimately its argument. In this case, what assets can, again, to play to take things in hand? In fact, says Ahmed Salem Latafi, "if we had undertaken to implement the regionalization process advanced in the Sahara, it would have created a new atmosphere in the region. This, on one hand. On the other hand, the international community would have considered from another angle the autonomy plan proposed by Morocco. We have given further proof of our seriousness. " It is therefore necessary that Morocco should establish the proposed regionalization and continues on the path of reform legislation by setting up institutions
under the new Constitution, for his part said Benhammou. "He must continue in the strategic path, that of establishing the rule of law and continues to address issues of development. In parallel, we must maintain its diplomatic strength and influence, whether in Africa or internationally. " Mr. Belghazal paid in the same direction: "Morocco must continue to defend the autonomy project. This text is in itself a revolution in the organization and structure of the Moroccan state.
The proposal of this project in April 2007, was a democratic spring term before. " Moreover, adds one who participated in the design of this project, "he answers 80% of the claims of the Polisario and Algeria allows the file to withdraw without losing face."
The recent designation of the United Nations a non-permanent Security Council for a term of two years allows it to be leading to better promote the project. But it is also on the ground that the Moroccan State must be very present, especially in the field of human rights. It a big risk to leave the Polisario and its acolytes inside of user rights to serve political interests.
la vie eco.
At the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, it is argued that this initiative was taken to inject new momentum to negotiations. It goes without saying that this is not the only reason that led Morocco to challenge the special envoy of Ban Ki-Moon. The act was approved today, what do we do then? Now what?, One is tempted to say. Although, at the time of going to press, the Special Envoy Christopher Ross is still in office,obviously his departure is a matter of time.
The decision to end his mandate was not taken overnight. However, "the essence of his mission is that when one party withdraws its confidence, he can not continue in his mission. Rumors that the Secretary General may require maintaining his position as his special envoy are unfounded. The special envoy is here, at the wish the Houston Accords (1991), to build trust and reconcile points of view between the parties. He can no longer continue in his mission when he becomes an element of tension, "said Abdelmajid Belghazal, specialist in the Sahara who participated in the design of the Moroccan autonomy plan.
It was also the case for the two predecessors of Ross, former U.S. Secretary of State James Backer (1997-2004) and the Dutch diplomat Peter Van Walsum (2005-2008). The most likely scenario, say sources familiar with the matter is that the special envoy on his own decides to retire. Its mandate, in fact, to this term in June and as did his predecessor, Peter Van Walsum, he may submit his resignation.
Meanwhile, the UN Secretary-General would have already started looking for a replacement who is acceptable to all parties in the conflict.
Deadlock and lack of perspective
He is involved, again, a series of negotiations, or entering the Security Council, before appointing a new envoy. How long will this take? Nobody knows. What is known is that between the resignation of Van Walsum and the appointment of Christopher Ross,it took nearly four months.
So we are again in a flutter. Much more, says Mohamed Benhammou, university professor and president of the Moroccan Centre for Strategic Studies, "the record is de facto an impasse because of the position of Algeria, because the positions and choices of the Polisario are actually dictated by it. This rigid position recorded in the file and the stalemate in a succession of absences of evolution and results.
" Therefore, we know in advance every April, when the Security Council is asked to decide on the fate of MINURSO's mandate that it be extended and, since Christopher Ross chose the strategy of informal meetings, the final communiqué of one of these meetings would inevitably announce the next meeting. All of which suggests to Abdelmajid Belghazal that "somewhere it is intended that the record fails to leave the status quo.
There are no signs that the international community really wants to impose a rapid resolution of the case. This while
ensuring that the tension between the parties does not reach a level that would encourage them to take up arms. " Indeed, Mohamed
Benhammou approves, "the international community, at least some parts, give the impression of taking an ambiguous and confusing position.
For, while expressing clear support to the project of autonomy proposed by Morocco, while presenting this project as credible, serious and as a project that provides concrete solutions to overcome this crisis, they do nothing for fear of offending Algeria, the regional energy power. "
To have lasted so long, what advantage is there for any party? "All we can say is that this situation is not very
comfortable for anybody," said Ahmed Salem Latafi, Corcas member of the Politburo and the PPS, in charge of the Sahara. Benhammou yet made the following observation: "The strategic break and dislocation experienced by North Africa last year created a new geopolitical situation that calls for the creation of a new regional order and requires an integration Maghreb and this, especially since its near where the South experienced a serious situation that presents a real danger to the security and stability in the region. "
Those who benefit from the conflict
Similarly, what does not bode well, in addition to the proliferation of weapons and various illegal activities, is that the region has just experienced a precedent. "For the first time in the world, Al Qaeda has proclaimed, through one of its offshoots, Ansar Eddine, an Islamic state in northern Mali," says Mohamed Benhammou. This context of serious concern should prompt the international community to support a quick resolution of the Sahara conflict. For, he concludes, "at this juncture, the extension of the Sahara conflict and the maintenance of this source of tension may be very costly for the entire region."
Theoretically, all these considerations argue, indeed, for fast resolution of the issue. Except that the reality is more complex than it appears. For, according to Abdelmajid Belghazal, maintaining the status quo benefits everyone except the Moroccan state and the Sahrawi population still living in deplorable conditions in the Tindouf camps.
First, he says, it benefits certain international interests, primarily those related to energy. Secondly, it is naturally the Polisario, or
rather the direction of the front, which derives a large profit. This fully exploits politically the conflict. "The logic of
the Polisario leaders is simple: as long as this conflict is not resolved, they consider themselves at war and therefore there is no question that there is a change in the direction of the front." However, a source explains Sahrawi Polisario fringe does not hide his fears that the process is bogged down at the point of not offering a clear perspective on the action to be taken. This wing of the organization fears that Morocco benefits from this slump to accelerate the implementatio
This all, the source added, "the chaotic situation in the Sahel and the handling of Northern Mali by Islamist groups complicates the situation. No more capitals in the world, except Algiers, seriously believes in the story of a Sahrawi republic. That's why the most sceptical among the Polisario leaders are in the clash of Morocco with Christopher Ross is a potential risk that would not necessarily affect their calculations, nor those of their ally Algeria.
Algeria, itself, benefits from this situation. Because, as claimed by the head of government in an interview recently, the Spanish daily El Pais, "if Algeria willing, the Sahara problem could be solved in days or weeks." Of course, Algeria was quick to deny any involvement in this matter. Nevertheless, as once told Youssef Amrani, Minister for Foreign Affairs, "where I am and whenever there Algeria always an opponent in front of me. Each time a Moroccan diplomat makes a move at an embassy or chancery to explain the Moroccan position on the conflict,
his vis-à-vis Algeria is quick to adopt an approach opposite to expose the Polisario " .
After 36 years of conflict, nothing seems to have changed. "The Algerian government says Abdelmajid Belghazal, is driven by its hegemonic ambitions in the region.
He justifies his position with the Algerian people by a desire to confront what it calls intent to expand in Morocco. It therefore continues to support the Polisario and mobilizes it to his diplomacy and huge foreign reserves it is with Western banks as a kind of bribery that does not dare say their name. " Mohamed Benhammou explains the unwavering support of the Polisario in Algeria by another factor:
"Any change in the direction of democratization in theregion is perceived as a threat by the authorities in Algeria."
Nobody can fire even a single bullet
Question: can this lack of perspective does push the Polisario to opt for climbing? Because it became a ritual in recent years.
Between rounds of negotiations, the Polisario has nothing better to do than to threaten the recovery of weapons. "Indeed,says Belghazal it is a threat that the Polisario agitated whenever tensions inside camps graze social explosion. It is a way to appease these social tensions. In the field, the choice of the resumption of weapons is in the hand of anyone. No one can fire a single shot in this region. " The threat of retaliation is thus armed, he says, a way to pressure the international community and blackmail of the population in Tindouf camps.
Still faced with such a picture, Morocco can not stay with its hands tied. Youssef Amrani argues: "The status quo is untenable.
" Morocco has indeed some playing cards. Irrespective of its motivations, the decision to withdraw its confidence in the special envoy was not easy. It is, in itself, a break in a process that could, if continued further, eroding ultimately its argument. In this case, what assets can, again, to play to take things in hand? In fact, says Ahmed Salem Latafi, "if we had undertaken to implement the regionalization process advanced in the Sahara, it would have created a new atmosphere in the region. This, on one hand. On the other hand, the international community would have considered from another angle the autonomy plan proposed by Morocco. We have given further proof of our seriousness. " It is therefore necessary that Morocco should establish the proposed regionalization and continues on the path of reform legislation by setting up institutions
under the new Constitution, for his part said Benhammou. "He must continue in the strategic path, that of establishing the rule of law and continues to address issues of development. In parallel, we must maintain its diplomatic strength and influence, whether in Africa or internationally. " Mr. Belghazal paid in the same direction: "Morocco must continue to defend the autonomy project. This text is in itself a revolution in the organization and structure of the Moroccan state.
The proposal of this project in April 2007, was a democratic spring term before. " Moreover, adds one who participated in the design of this project, "he answers 80% of the claims of the Polisario and Algeria allows the file to withdraw without losing face."
The recent designation of the United Nations a non-permanent Security Council for a term of two years allows it to be leading to better promote the project. But it is also on the ground that the Moroccan State must be very present, especially in the field of human rights. It a big risk to leave the Polisario and its acolytes inside of user rights to serve political interests.
la vie eco.
Source : https://www.marocafrik.com/english/The-Sahara-What...