The Arab Maghreb Union will it become a reality ?
Diplomatic relations with China were once assisted by ping pong diplomacy. Algeria has agreed to Morocco's request to allow cyclists to cross the border at Zouj Bghal, to allow for the passage of Moroccan cyclists competing in the 25th anniversary of a cycling tour. The border has been closed since 1994 and Mourad Medelci, Algeria's foreign Minister has recently spoken of reopening the border and reestablishing the African Maghreb Union (AMU).
Source : https://www.marocafrik.com/english/The-Arab-Maghre...
Moncef Marzouki, Tunisia's new President is undertaking a diplomatic offensive by travelling to AMU countries to encourage the reactivation of an organisation which everyone agrees is necessary, President Bouteflika spoke of his support for the AMU in Tunis during the celebration of the Tunisian revolution last week. Morocco has always supported the concept and it was a Moroccan initiative that brought the leaders of the Maghreb countries together in Marrakech in 1989. There was an ecouraging meeting between Mourad Medelci and his Moroccan counterpart in the Moroccan government at the time, Taieb Fassi Fihri. Both sides expressed their desire for better relations. Mourad Medelci subsequently announced that AMU diplomatic chiefs will convene at the end of February in Rabat.
These are hopeful signs and the chance to reestablish the AMU as an effective body has been boosted by the changes of leadership in Tunisia and Libya. Tunisia and Libya have already had an intial visit from Tunisia's President Marzouki where he called for the revival of the AMU and business forums between Libya and Tunisia are taking place. President Marzouki called 2012 the year of reconstruction and while much infrastructure has been damaged and destroyed in Tunisia and Libya the reconstruction effort whould generate more jobs and international effort and investment in these two countries which could be a silver lining for both of them.
The US Eisnstadt initiative from the US some years ago argued that the Maghreb needed to create its own internal market to strengthen the countries as a whole because inter Maghreb trade remains extremely low and the need to open borders for the free flow of goods and services is evident. It argued that an effective AMU would encourage more FDI because investors would be able to deal with the region rather than individual countries.
The infrastructure is there Morocco completed the 230 km Fez - Oujda highway which goes to the frontier and Algeria has completed much of the great East West highway project. All the countries have good road and rail links.
The natural resource base of the region is predominantly petroleum and natural gas (especially in Algeria and Libya), metallic and non-metallic minerals, and Atlantic fisheries (Mauritania and Morocco). the north of Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia have significant arable and cultivated lands (relative to their total area), by virtue of their location predominantly in the relatively temperate, Mediterranean climate zone of the Maghreb northern region. The largest countries are Algeria and Morocco with nearly 35 million each Libya has some 6 million and Tunisa 10 million. Mauritania is the poorest and the smallest with some 3 million and has the lowest per capita income despite recent oil and gas finds. Given the high unemployment rate in the Maghreb amongst the predominately youthful population the need to diversify their economies to achieve more job creation is paramount.
The PNB-Napeo conference taking place in Marrakech on encouraging entrepreurship in the region is a case in point. All the Maghreb countries need to grow their private sectors as a priority. This will not be easy for Tunisia and Libya given the high national debt and disruption which has followed the Arab Spring revolts, Tunisia is probably best suited to create a strong private sector as it has a strong middle class base and a number of private businessmen. Libya has to develop a private sector almost from scratch as it was not one of Gaddafi's priorities. Algeria is moving to create a stronger private sector with more entrepreneurs as evidenced in President Abdelaziz's recent budget speech, but progress has been slow in recent years and needs to speed up. Algeria's dependence on hydrocarbons needs to be diversified as as the President acknowledged in his speech. Oil and Gas may provide considerable sums for the state but it is not a big employer. Morocco is by far the most diversified of the Maghrebian economies and their is a clear political will to create a stronger private sector. Much of Morocco's income comes from Phosphates and remittances from Moroccans living abroad. It also has substantial Tourism revenues ($7.3 billion in 2010) which were 10 per cent up in 2011 until the Argana Cafe bomb in April 2011.
Common policies on electricity grid sharing and water resources and agriculture to reduce reduce dependence on imports would also be of great benefit because the Maghreb should be able to feed itself. The concept of the AMU is logical but it has to be made practical as well . he main reason for the failure of the initiative is the deadlock in the dispute between Algeria with Morocco over the West Sahara. If this most difficult and complex issue can be resolved the rest will probably fall into place but until a solution is found real progress may not be made. Given the security concerns in the Sahel there is far more reason for all countries to unite on security issues and Morocco has been invited by Algeria to the next Sahel security conference. It is to be hoped that the optimism generated in the Arab Spring will act as a boost to the regeneration of the AMU.
The issue of a single convertible Maghrebian currency is probably not going to be a practicable solution for sometime it may even be argued that a measure of protection from the eurozone crisis was afforded to Maghrebian banks and economies because they were isolated from the debt crisis. The fate of the euro may influence this decision in the short term.
Other alternatives to the Maghreb Union such as the proposal for a southern mediterraean grouping now look less likely because of the eurozone crisis , however Europe remains the main trading partner for the Maghreb and the link between Europe and the Maghreb will probably remain a decisive factor. Morocco's recent invitation to join the Gulf Cooperation Council raises interesting possibilities of increased cooperation with the cash rich Gulf States, Qatar ,the UAE and Kuwait recently invested 2.5 billion in Morocco's tourism industry. The Emir of Qatar Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani has emerged as a decisive Gulf leader present at Tunisia's revolution celebrations and mediating recently between Algeria and Libya. A closer relationship between the Gulf and the Maghreb could yield major benefits for the Maghreb.
There may also be a future option for closer economic relations between with Egypt, Orsacom for instance has up till now played animportant role in Algeria and Libya is a neighbour. Egypt with its population of 80 million may be too large a market for its Maghrebian neighbours to compete with. but after the last years developments anything could be possible and that in itself is a cause for optimism.
These are hopeful signs and the chance to reestablish the AMU as an effective body has been boosted by the changes of leadership in Tunisia and Libya. Tunisia and Libya have already had an intial visit from Tunisia's President Marzouki where he called for the revival of the AMU and business forums between Libya and Tunisia are taking place. President Marzouki called 2012 the year of reconstruction and while much infrastructure has been damaged and destroyed in Tunisia and Libya the reconstruction effort whould generate more jobs and international effort and investment in these two countries which could be a silver lining for both of them.
The US Eisnstadt initiative from the US some years ago argued that the Maghreb needed to create its own internal market to strengthen the countries as a whole because inter Maghreb trade remains extremely low and the need to open borders for the free flow of goods and services is evident. It argued that an effective AMU would encourage more FDI because investors would be able to deal with the region rather than individual countries.
The infrastructure is there Morocco completed the 230 km Fez - Oujda highway which goes to the frontier and Algeria has completed much of the great East West highway project. All the countries have good road and rail links.
The natural resource base of the region is predominantly petroleum and natural gas (especially in Algeria and Libya), metallic and non-metallic minerals, and Atlantic fisheries (Mauritania and Morocco). the north of Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia have significant arable and cultivated lands (relative to their total area), by virtue of their location predominantly in the relatively temperate, Mediterranean climate zone of the Maghreb northern region. The largest countries are Algeria and Morocco with nearly 35 million each Libya has some 6 million and Tunisa 10 million. Mauritania is the poorest and the smallest with some 3 million and has the lowest per capita income despite recent oil and gas finds. Given the high unemployment rate in the Maghreb amongst the predominately youthful population the need to diversify their economies to achieve more job creation is paramount.
The PNB-Napeo conference taking place in Marrakech on encouraging entrepreurship in the region is a case in point. All the Maghreb countries need to grow their private sectors as a priority. This will not be easy for Tunisia and Libya given the high national debt and disruption which has followed the Arab Spring revolts, Tunisia is probably best suited to create a strong private sector as it has a strong middle class base and a number of private businessmen. Libya has to develop a private sector almost from scratch as it was not one of Gaddafi's priorities. Algeria is moving to create a stronger private sector with more entrepreneurs as evidenced in President Abdelaziz's recent budget speech, but progress has been slow in recent years and needs to speed up. Algeria's dependence on hydrocarbons needs to be diversified as as the President acknowledged in his speech. Oil and Gas may provide considerable sums for the state but it is not a big employer. Morocco is by far the most diversified of the Maghrebian economies and their is a clear political will to create a stronger private sector. Much of Morocco's income comes from Phosphates and remittances from Moroccans living abroad. It also has substantial Tourism revenues ($7.3 billion in 2010) which were 10 per cent up in 2011 until the Argana Cafe bomb in April 2011.
Common policies on electricity grid sharing and water resources and agriculture to reduce reduce dependence on imports would also be of great benefit because the Maghreb should be able to feed itself. The concept of the AMU is logical but it has to be made practical as well . he main reason for the failure of the initiative is the deadlock in the dispute between Algeria with Morocco over the West Sahara. If this most difficult and complex issue can be resolved the rest will probably fall into place but until a solution is found real progress may not be made. Given the security concerns in the Sahel there is far more reason for all countries to unite on security issues and Morocco has been invited by Algeria to the next Sahel security conference. It is to be hoped that the optimism generated in the Arab Spring will act as a boost to the regeneration of the AMU.
The issue of a single convertible Maghrebian currency is probably not going to be a practicable solution for sometime it may even be argued that a measure of protection from the eurozone crisis was afforded to Maghrebian banks and economies because they were isolated from the debt crisis. The fate of the euro may influence this decision in the short term.
Other alternatives to the Maghreb Union such as the proposal for a southern mediterraean grouping now look less likely because of the eurozone crisis , however Europe remains the main trading partner for the Maghreb and the link between Europe and the Maghreb will probably remain a decisive factor. Morocco's recent invitation to join the Gulf Cooperation Council raises interesting possibilities of increased cooperation with the cash rich Gulf States, Qatar ,the UAE and Kuwait recently invested 2.5 billion in Morocco's tourism industry. The Emir of Qatar Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani has emerged as a decisive Gulf leader present at Tunisia's revolution celebrations and mediating recently between Algeria and Libya. A closer relationship between the Gulf and the Maghreb could yield major benefits for the Maghreb.
There may also be a future option for closer economic relations between with Egypt, Orsacom for instance has up till now played animportant role in Algeria and Libya is a neighbour. Egypt with its population of 80 million may be too large a market for its Maghrebian neighbours to compete with. but after the last years developments anything could be possible and that in itself is a cause for optimism.
Source : https://www.marocafrik.com/english/The-Arab-Maghre...