Regional cooperation: does the Maghreb have the choice?

Antonin Tisseron  estimates unemployment in the Maghreb as being 30 percent  ofthose under 25 years of age and 14 per cent of the general population.The disruption of the Arab Spring has affected the countries of the Maghreb to varying degrees.Morocco is expected to achieve economic growth of 4.5 per cent whilst Tunisia is likely to post negative growth due to a number of factors includingthe decline of tourism, the departure of foreign companies due to strikes and economic difficulties and the reduced level of trade with its neighbour Libya. Algeria and Libya are bolstered as always by the  revenue from hydrocarbon reserves.

The EU through institutions such as the EIB and the EBRD have continued to provide support and new project initiatives. The Maghreb remains an important market for Europe and despite the eurozone difficulties this will remain an important factor. The EU Morrocan free trade zone agreement came into effect on 1 March shortly after an EU agreement on tarrifs for Moroccan agricultural and fish products.

The 27-member bloc also remains the kingdom’s biggest trading partner (59%), well ahead of Asia (21%) and America (13.5%).However as with the other Maghreb countries the need to diversify sources of investment from a weaker EU means that all Maghreb countries need to diversify tehir sources of FDI to the Gulf and Africa which has strong growth potential. Qatar and other Gulf states have been investing in Morocco,Tunisia and Algeria.If the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU)could  approach this diversification of  foreign investment sources as a united block it woud have obvious advantages and the AMU countries would gain increased  internal economic strength by being able to invest with each other. Dynamic sectors such as banking, finance and telecoms offer real potential for all countries and businesses in the Maghreb. Strong financial institutions are a must.

Antonin Tisseron thinks that despite clear EU commitment to the Maghreb it is unlikely to be able to provide the Maghreb with all the economic support it needs even with the support of the IMF and World Bank.The recent 5+5 conference in Rome welcomed the positive moves towards renewing the AMU which has the support of all member governments. The opening of the Algerian Moroccan border , closed since 1994 looks far more likely and  is supported by positive and consistant diplomatic contacts. An AMU summit is planned for later in 2012 in Tunisia which has played an active role in the person of President Moncef Marzouki in achieving the concensus to hold the summit.

The challenge of integration is to respond to the difficulties of creating a new democracy whilst responding to key issues such as unemployment and housing and reducing inequality. he also highlights terrorism especially AQIM  as a major concern for the Maghreb although governments and their armed forces are ersponding to the threat. The ability to move forward to recreate a dynamic AMU does mean overcoming long term difficulties between countries in the Maghreb, he refers especially to the dispute between Algeria and Morocco over the Western Sahara and sees Morocco's autonomy proposal as the best way to reconcile  the principle of territorial integrity of Morocco with the aspirations of the Sahrawi population, while providing a response to the human situation in the Tindouf camps.

As well as the benefits of  joint economic reconstruction brought on by the merging of states in this part of North Africa,enhanced security cooperation in the face of increased terrorism activity in the Sahel and Northern Mali  where a war is being waged and ground to air missiles and other heavy weapons are being deployed.It is in the interests of all parties including the EU,the Gulf States and America to see the situation in North Africa stabalise and one of teh most important factors will be a strong AMU on the southern shores of the Mediterranean.