Mali: dealing with the crisis.

It remarks that a solution to the crisis depends, first, on how to restore Mali’s territorial integrity and, second, on whether the jihadi movements manage to consolidate their position of strength in the north. Ansar Dine and Mujao seem to have taken over control of Gao, Kidal and Timubktu and to have forced the MNLA out of the main centres in the North. Foreign jihadis from different countries, even Afghanistan are present and well on the way to consolidating their position. The North is a base for Al Qaeda but there are clearly as many divisions in the North as there are in the South.
 
In Bamako society is still split between those who supported the Sanogo junta and those who supported Amadou Traore who has settled in Senagal. The appalling attack on interim President Dioncounda Traore (who is still in France) shows as the ICS says that there needs to be a force to guard the members of the government and the sooner a government of national unity is formed the better. This however may not be easy to achieve. Ecowas has not been able to progress the situation, although it has tried.  The 3,300 troops it has on standy may just be enough to restore some order to Bamako but it seems unlikely to be able to deal with the terrorist andTuareg forces in Northern Mali. The UN Security  Council has still not endorsed the Ecowas plan for this very reason.
 
Europe , France and the USA do not want to get involved militarily while proffering intelligence services and logistic support. As Laurent Fabius hinted recently there is an awareness that military intervention may be the only way forward. If they are concerned about Northern Mali becoming an international terrorist base they need to do something about it. There are many world conflicts and the difficulty of the desert terrain and the vast area cannot be underestimated.
 
Algeria and the Sahel forces under Cemoc also need to do more than have endless consultations. Niger recently called on Algeria to be more proactive in a military capacity but it seems as unwilling to act as the western allies.
 
The ICS talks about negotiating with the North but it is difficult to see that such negotiations will be successful. It would be necessary to separate Ansar Dine from AQMI, Mujao and others. The situation in the North does appear to be fragmenting which may be to the advantage of Ecowas. President Campaore of Burkino Faso has shown himself to be able to negotiate hostage relief in a number of cases. He has seen both the MNLA and Ansar Dine which is hopeful. If  Ecowas is going to take the lead as it clearly has the ambition to do it should restore order and a  stable democratic government in Bamako. If it wants to go further and tackle the forces in the north more experienced and well armed troops are going to be needed.

Six Malian self-defence groups said on  Saturday they had joined forces to oust Islamist militants in the North.
This is probably an invitation to chaos and  operational control needs to be established without any further delay.
The problem with Mali is that everyone can see all too clearly what could go wrong.