Mali: An Analysis of the Current Situation.
An analysis by David Lewis of Reuters points out that in a matter of weeks Mali has gone from being a democratic state to a partitioned and fractured territory with the MNLA in the North proclaiming the independence of Azawad.
Source : https://www.marocafrik.com/english/Mali-An-Analysi...
With the islamic fundamentatlist Ansar Dine linking up with elements of Al Qaeda and calling for a sharia controlled state without calling for independence, the Tuareg forces are divided in their aims.
In the South of the country the Interim President Dioncounda Traore and his appointed interim Prime Minister Cheick Modibo Diarra appointed following Ecowas intervention have to enter into a kind of uneasy cohabitation with the former Juanta led by Captain Amadou Sanogo who have made it clear that they have only stepped aside temporarily until a new government is elected on 23 May.
Although thie elections will almost certainly have to be postponed given the situation in the North.President Traore called for "total war" against the Tuareg forces in the North but in reality the Ecowas force of 3,000 which is on standy has little experience of desert fighting and is certainly not as well equipped as the highly mobile
Tuareg forces who have heavy weaponary they bought with them from Libya., altrhough ammunition supplies may perhaps be running short.At best Ecowas forces can be used stabalise the situation in Bamako and the South of Mali.
Both the MNLA and Ansar Dine have said they are willing to talk to the authorities in the South. Prime Minister Cheick Modibo Diarra said according to Jeune Afrique that he would consider "all options, firstly that of negotiation" but, he warned,"not with the knife to the throat, accepting the fait accompli ".
If it was just the MNLA the Malian government had to talk to their task would be easier and it is clear that any settlement must include the Tuareg in Mali..
There is no doubt that the Tuareg have been badly treated in the past and previous Malian governments have failed to honour accords they made with them. Unfortunately the Tuareg themselves are split and the islamic
fundamentalism of Ansar Dine which is forcing Malian citizens still in the North to observe Sharia and islamic code dress are not acceptable to the majority of non muslim Malians.
In his first message to the nation, Reuters quotes the Prime Minster Cheick Modibo Diarra addressing to northernern Malians "who suffer martyrdom because of an attack as incomprehensible as barbaric." This is also unacceptable to Mali's international allies,the US,UN,and the EU, particulalry the presence of Al Qaeda and its allies such as Mujwa.
However President Sarkozy has made it clear that any solution has to be via the UN. The message seems to be that since Nato and U.S. intervention in Libya there will be no futher armed excursions in the region from their side, its over to Ecowasand the UN.Algeria which heads the armed forces of the Sahel from CEMAC in Tamenrasset, has ruled out miltary intervention.
Niger is calling for armed action and its army is better trained than its Malian counterpart and there is no indication that its Tuareg population wishes to follow the MNLA in revolt at this stage despite the Tuareg population in Niger being far higher than in Mali. Niger it seems has handled things rather better than its neighbour. It also knows that it is not alone: it has uranium and without uranium from Niger the French nuclear energy industry could not continue to operate, Jeune Afrique notes.
Mali, although it has gold, is alone and knows it. Niger, Tchad,Mali and Burkino Faso are also suffering from long term drought and malnourishment which is and will continue to cause many deaths in the millions. Those 270,000 that have fled Mali and are languishing in neighbouring countries are diminishing their stocks of food. As Ansar Dine met for talks with Mauritania's President Mohamed Ould Abdelaziz, one wonders whther the International Criminal Court (ICC) may one day want to talk to those who have been responsible for the ethnic cleansing and eventual death of so much of the Malian poulation.
The North African Journal in its latest issue says that "Sahel nations,including Niger, Mauritania, Chad, and further east into the Sudan,etc are simply failed states where economic bankruptcy, political chaos, and a state of lawlessness have made the region a natural landscape for crises to emerge and flourish." The prospects for the region as a whole right from Mali through to Somalia and Sudan is of a vast desert area beyond control of international and regional governments,and a natural breeding ground forterrorism and its attendant activities of drugs and weapon smuggling and the kidnapping of any Europeans unwise enough to stray into the area.
One hopes that the solution will not involve drones flying over a desolate land destroying all its operators see, guilty or otherwise. President Mohammed Ould Abdelaziz sees Mali as possibly becoming another Afghanistan but it may be the whole region and its neighbours who are affected .
In the South of the country the Interim President Dioncounda Traore and his appointed interim Prime Minister Cheick Modibo Diarra appointed following Ecowas intervention have to enter into a kind of uneasy cohabitation with the former Juanta led by Captain Amadou Sanogo who have made it clear that they have only stepped aside temporarily until a new government is elected on 23 May.
Although thie elections will almost certainly have to be postponed given the situation in the North.President Traore called for "total war" against the Tuareg forces in the North but in reality the Ecowas force of 3,000 which is on standy has little experience of desert fighting and is certainly not as well equipped as the highly mobile
Tuareg forces who have heavy weaponary they bought with them from Libya., altrhough ammunition supplies may perhaps be running short.At best Ecowas forces can be used stabalise the situation in Bamako and the South of Mali.
Both the MNLA and Ansar Dine have said they are willing to talk to the authorities in the South. Prime Minister Cheick Modibo Diarra said according to Jeune Afrique that he would consider "all options, firstly that of negotiation" but, he warned,"not with the knife to the throat, accepting the fait accompli ".
If it was just the MNLA the Malian government had to talk to their task would be easier and it is clear that any settlement must include the Tuareg in Mali..
There is no doubt that the Tuareg have been badly treated in the past and previous Malian governments have failed to honour accords they made with them. Unfortunately the Tuareg themselves are split and the islamic
fundamentalism of Ansar Dine which is forcing Malian citizens still in the North to observe Sharia and islamic code dress are not acceptable to the majority of non muslim Malians.
In his first message to the nation, Reuters quotes the Prime Minster Cheick Modibo Diarra addressing to northernern Malians "who suffer martyrdom because of an attack as incomprehensible as barbaric." This is also unacceptable to Mali's international allies,the US,UN,and the EU, particulalry the presence of Al Qaeda and its allies such as Mujwa.
However President Sarkozy has made it clear that any solution has to be via the UN. The message seems to be that since Nato and U.S. intervention in Libya there will be no futher armed excursions in the region from their side, its over to Ecowasand the UN.Algeria which heads the armed forces of the Sahel from CEMAC in Tamenrasset, has ruled out miltary intervention.
Niger is calling for armed action and its army is better trained than its Malian counterpart and there is no indication that its Tuareg population wishes to follow the MNLA in revolt at this stage despite the Tuareg population in Niger being far higher than in Mali. Niger it seems has handled things rather better than its neighbour. It also knows that it is not alone: it has uranium and without uranium from Niger the French nuclear energy industry could not continue to operate, Jeune Afrique notes.
Mali, although it has gold, is alone and knows it. Niger, Tchad,Mali and Burkino Faso are also suffering from long term drought and malnourishment which is and will continue to cause many deaths in the millions. Those 270,000 that have fled Mali and are languishing in neighbouring countries are diminishing their stocks of food. As Ansar Dine met for talks with Mauritania's President Mohamed Ould Abdelaziz, one wonders whther the International Criminal Court (ICC) may one day want to talk to those who have been responsible for the ethnic cleansing and eventual death of so much of the Malian poulation.
The North African Journal in its latest issue says that "Sahel nations,including Niger, Mauritania, Chad, and further east into the Sudan,etc are simply failed states where economic bankruptcy, political chaos, and a state of lawlessness have made the region a natural landscape for crises to emerge and flourish." The prospects for the region as a whole right from Mali through to Somalia and Sudan is of a vast desert area beyond control of international and regional governments,and a natural breeding ground forterrorism and its attendant activities of drugs and weapon smuggling and the kidnapping of any Europeans unwise enough to stray into the area.
One hopes that the solution will not involve drones flying over a desolate land destroying all its operators see, guilty or otherwise. President Mohammed Ould Abdelaziz sees Mali as possibly becoming another Afghanistan but it may be the whole region and its neighbours who are affected .
Source : https://www.marocafrik.com/english/Mali-An-Analysi...