Tourism prospects in 2012

Operators had hope  that there would be a return to normal and Rifai praised Tunisia and Egypt's promotion efforts, but tourists continue to shun North Africa a year after the "Arab Spring" revolutions and it is hard to predict the future. Tourists prefer the Canary Islands, the Caribbean or the Maldives or they stay at home, Britain's tourism authority has launched a campaign to do just that.

"Developments in the Middle East and North Africa are very difficult to predict at this time," Taleb Rifai told Reuters.

"The situation in Syria is still unfolding from bad to worse. The situation in Yemen is very unclear. And the Arab Spring is not limited to any one particular country. Uncertainty is the name of the game now for the immediate future."

Frequent demonstrations and strikes, though peaceful contribute to tourists' apprhensions and the economic recession in Europe is making holdiay makers stay at home.

"We understand that (challenge) perfectly. We have to reassure them that Tunisia is safe," the country's tourism minister Elyes Fakhfakh told Reuters on the sidelines of the Berlin conference.

The number of international tourists arriving in North African destinations dropped by 12 per cent to 16.4 million last year, and the Middle East saw visitor numbers decline by 8 per cent to 55.4 million, according to UNWTO data.

The body sees growth for the overall Middle East of zero to 5 per cent this year, though Rifai said there was a good possibility arrivals in Egypt and Tunisia could return to pre-crisis levels by the end of the year.

For the moment, Egypt in particular is still struggling following an 18 per cent drop in tourist nights spent in the country in 2011, and much is riding on how the political situation changes over the next few months.

The problem has been compounded by a recent flurry of kidnappings of foreigners by Bedouin tribesmen in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula that has drawn attention to deteriorating security in the isolated desert region since the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak. One bright spot for Egypt has been healthy numbers of Russian tourists, who have not been deterred by instability in the region."Our hotels in the Red Sea areas are filled with Russians", Ed Fuller, president of Marriot's international division, said."They're not intimidated."

Tunisia, which cut its economic growth forecast for 2012 this week, does not expect numbers to return to pre-crisis levels of 7 million visitors until next year. "We fell to 5 million visitors last year. We hope we can make up one million of the shortfall this year, with the remainder in 2013," Fakhfakh said. According to German travel association DRV, Germans have been among the first to return to Tunisia, with current bookings rising strongly after a drop of around 40 per cent last year. "I don't think we will be back to 2010 levels this year, but it is catching up a lot," DRV president Juergen Buechy said.

Recent tourism investments from Gulf countries in the tourism industries of Tunisia and Morocco , particularly Qatar have provided welcome financial support at a crucial time.

Morocco however is continuing its tourism development and Marrakech's regional centre for tourism in Marrakech, has announced the addition of 30 new hotels for 2012, five of which have been contracted. in Marrakech there are signs that tourism arrivals are picking up and hotel operators and riads are seeing customer arrivals increasing. Marrakech's new hotels will  cover the range of  five star luxury hotels, medium sized establishments  and budget hotels and guest houses Marrakech's capacity will be over 60,000 beds and the city is continuing to attract investors.

Morocco's tourism Minister Lahcen Haddad  intends to  create 400,000 jobs in tourism sector by 2020, The bed capacity will be reinforced by 80,000 beds by 2020, Haddad told Arabic-speaking daily “Al Massae”, adding that every bed means one direct job.

The Minister also said that Morocco is urged to raise150 billion dirhams of investments to achieve the goals of Vision 2020 for tourism in Morocco, noting that the Kingdom will depend on the Fund for Tourism development and the sovereign wealth funds of Gulf countries to reach the expected results. He added that the State will also contribute to tourist projects which will encourage businessmen wishing to invest in the sector.

Much will depend on external factors but experience suggests that tourists do return , if one looks at Egypt after the  Luxor incident where 58 tourists were killed it took time but the tourists did return , loyalty to a particular country can an important factor .Europeans have found that islamic socities have a deep resonance for them and a rich and diverse culture which is very attractive. A good rate of return visits is therefore very important.


Whilst the eurozone crisis and unemployment is likely to affect tourism arrivals over the next year the proximity of North African destinations remains attractive for those who do not want to travel too far. Culturally rich destinations with the additional benefit of sunshine provides a strong attraction. Whilst North Africa will seek to attract tourists from outside Europe the close links to Euorpean cultures remains a strong positive factor. Both international and national tourism operators and their governments will hope that the situation returns to normal but this will depend on internal stability.