Qaddafi's Spawn: the effects of the Dictator's Demise – Foreign Affairs
In March, Permanent U.S. Representative to NATO Ivo Daalder and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe James Stavridis wrote in Foreign Affairs that, faced with the humanitarian disaster in Libya, NATO "succeeded in protecting those civilians and, ultimately, in providing the time and space necessary for local forces to overthrow Muammar al-Qaddafi."
Source : https://www.marocafrik.com/english/Qaddafi-s-Spawn...
However ,Yahia H. Zoubir writes in Foreign Affairs,the celebration was premature as the removal of Qaddafi spawned a series of catastrophic results which have reverberated throughout North Africa and the Sahel.
A vast cache of weapons includuing ground to air missiles has been unleashed and is still pouring out of Libya into the Sahel,Tunisia and recently a convoy was stopped in Egypt with weapons on its wa to rebels in Sinai. Billions of dollars have also disappeared as have the people who know where it was stashed providing potential funds for terrorism says Mr Zoubir.
Tens of thousands of Africans, fleeing Libya, returned home this year. Many of them are ripe for jihadi infiltration, and large numbers of refugees further strain the region's weak economies. Already, food security is a major issue and famine looms as agriculture throughout the Sahel fails due to long term drought.
The weapons,missing funds and refugees have had different effects accross the region. In Libya the militias and tribes, themselves involved in smuggling weapons are fighting each other teetering on the edge of further armed conflict and whole areas breaking up under local rule reflecting tribalism and regionalism. This violence has also affected Tunisia with weapons smuggled in and trade with Libya declining.Tunisia's exports to Libya dropped by 34 percent and imports fell by an amazing 95 percent; according to the African Development Bank. Tunisian migrant workers had to return and the economic fall out for the Tunisian economy was grave although Tunisia and Libya are working to increase the flow of workers and trade again. Libyan tourists also stopped coming to Tunisia which affected tourism revenues.
Some $150 billion was hidden abroad with possibly £37 billion in the USA and the men who knew where it was
hidden like Shukri Ghanem former head of the National Oil Corpoartion died a mysterious death in Vienna. The new Libyan government badly needs the money.The International Monetary Fund is already reporting that Libya's deficit is unsustainable in the long run and public spending is exceeding a sustainaable level.
In Algeria a cache of ground to air missiles was found buried near In Amenas an oil field centre and terrorist attacks near Tamenrasset and Jijel suggest that Al Qaeda may mount a larger terrorist campaign in the country.
The flow of arms and former Qadaffi soldiers into the Northern Mali has provided a base for Al Qaeda who together with Ansar Dine managed to oust the MNLA and now threaten Mali's neighbours particulalrly Niger, which together with other Sahel countries have had to cope ith the influx of displaced Malians. Some 284,000 Malians had fled northern Mali: 56,664 found refuge in Burkina Faso, 61,000 in Mauritania, 39,388 in Niger, and about 15,000 in Algeria. The new refugees are a heavy burden on countries that can barely sustain their own populations, which are suffering from drought and hunger.
Maghreb countries are talking about resusitating the Arab Maghreb Union and efforts for economic integration are under way but because of continuing disagreements between Algeria and Morocco it still seems someway off. Following the huge surge of weapons,money and refugees the main challenge will be maintaining the territorial integrity of countries in the regionnand its borders and the threat in Libya and Mali of partition or worse,
becoming an isolated failed state like Somalia. Mr Zoubir concludes that non violent social change has more chance of succeeding and concludes that it is doubtful that NATO's celebrated "successful operation" will bring prosperity to the new Libya and stability to the region.
A vast cache of weapons includuing ground to air missiles has been unleashed and is still pouring out of Libya into the Sahel,Tunisia and recently a convoy was stopped in Egypt with weapons on its wa to rebels in Sinai. Billions of dollars have also disappeared as have the people who know where it was stashed providing potential funds for terrorism says Mr Zoubir.
Tens of thousands of Africans, fleeing Libya, returned home this year. Many of them are ripe for jihadi infiltration, and large numbers of refugees further strain the region's weak economies. Already, food security is a major issue and famine looms as agriculture throughout the Sahel fails due to long term drought.
The weapons,missing funds and refugees have had different effects accross the region. In Libya the militias and tribes, themselves involved in smuggling weapons are fighting each other teetering on the edge of further armed conflict and whole areas breaking up under local rule reflecting tribalism and regionalism. This violence has also affected Tunisia with weapons smuggled in and trade with Libya declining.Tunisia's exports to Libya dropped by 34 percent and imports fell by an amazing 95 percent; according to the African Development Bank. Tunisian migrant workers had to return and the economic fall out for the Tunisian economy was grave although Tunisia and Libya are working to increase the flow of workers and trade again. Libyan tourists also stopped coming to Tunisia which affected tourism revenues.
Some $150 billion was hidden abroad with possibly £37 billion in the USA and the men who knew where it was
hidden like Shukri Ghanem former head of the National Oil Corpoartion died a mysterious death in Vienna. The new Libyan government badly needs the money.The International Monetary Fund is already reporting that Libya's deficit is unsustainable in the long run and public spending is exceeding a sustainaable level.
In Algeria a cache of ground to air missiles was found buried near In Amenas an oil field centre and terrorist attacks near Tamenrasset and Jijel suggest that Al Qaeda may mount a larger terrorist campaign in the country.
The flow of arms and former Qadaffi soldiers into the Northern Mali has provided a base for Al Qaeda who together with Ansar Dine managed to oust the MNLA and now threaten Mali's neighbours particulalrly Niger, which together with other Sahel countries have had to cope ith the influx of displaced Malians. Some 284,000 Malians had fled northern Mali: 56,664 found refuge in Burkina Faso, 61,000 in Mauritania, 39,388 in Niger, and about 15,000 in Algeria. The new refugees are a heavy burden on countries that can barely sustain their own populations, which are suffering from drought and hunger.
Maghreb countries are talking about resusitating the Arab Maghreb Union and efforts for economic integration are under way but because of continuing disagreements between Algeria and Morocco it still seems someway off. Following the huge surge of weapons,money and refugees the main challenge will be maintaining the territorial integrity of countries in the regionnand its borders and the threat in Libya and Mali of partition or worse,
becoming an isolated failed state like Somalia. Mr Zoubir concludes that non violent social change has more chance of succeeding and concludes that it is doubtful that NATO's celebrated "successful operation" will bring prosperity to the new Libya and stability to the region.
Source : https://www.marocafrik.com/english/Qaddafi-s-Spawn...