International terrorism: Another Afrighanistan? The Economist

Whilst there are apparent similaritiesin the situation facing France with that which faced the USArmy and its allies in Afghanistan there are also important differences. The Economist says that the intervention in Mali need not be so longdrawn out as Iraq nor as hopeless as Afghanistan.

It points out that the origins of the conflict in Mali are local rather than regional or international.Lawless and violence has been part of life in the Sahel stretching eastwards to Somalia for centuries.It worsened with the civil war in Libya to remove Gaddafi. The end of his regime unleashed the flow of arms and Tuareg fighters. Gaddafi had played a role as a mediatior in previous Tuareg confrontationsin the Sahel region and Mali. his death unleashed the current nightmare. Some of these rebel groups who lived by drugs and arms trading took on the islamist jihadi mantel and began to kidnap Europeans for ransom.Thisblended with egitimate local grievances such as broken agreements between Malian governments and the Tuareg.Ethnic conflict between Tuaregs and Africans has hardened and jihadi's have likened the conflict to the period of the crusades trying to divide muslim and christian. This is also happening in Nigeria with Boko Harem and was spreading into the Sahel before the Fench intervention.

In an interview with the Economist Jon Marks chairman of Cross Border Information points to the ongoing climatic crisis in the Sahel with desertification  ,drought and floods. Governments have to cope with  a catastrophic environmental situation as well as dealing with terrorists and smugglers. The Sahel has long term problems  of malnutrition which have been made worse by the refugee situation of those fleeing the fighting in Mali. There is a wide arc of instability which includes Algeria and Libya whose borders extend over a vast area making them difficult to police and control. 

The attackers at In Amenas included Algerians,Tunisians, Egyptians,Libyans and jihadi's from the Sahel. The bitterness of local grievances particularly the young unemployed and a Sahel which is unsustainable. This could lead to an international islamist terrorist attack leading into Franceand other parts of Europe. As the French and Malian forces liberate Timbuktu and head for Kidal the longer term problems of finding and eliminating terrorists in the desert and in the mountains near Algeria will come into focus and could mean a longterm engagement for France and its allies.with counterinsurgency operations extendingover awide areaas well as in Mali itself.