French military strategy in Mali

Mujao could push down from Timbuktu and northern Mauritania which is a poorly secured area and the French and Mauritanian army have to counter this. One of the first goalswas to quickly reach Markala and secure it from another raid Mujao, as well as Diabali, a hundred miles north. Merkala has one of two bridges that allow  tanks to cross the Niger downstream of Bamako. The other is located in Gao, still in the hands of the Islamists, but more to the east.

Mujao could join elements of AnsarDine in the Wagadou forest , the may also move towards theair base at Sevare.The French forces have to ensure that the South is well secured by the Malian army. Yhey can then push on over the mountainous Dogon plateau to root out terrorists thereand then move on to Timbuktu and Gao. The use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) widely used inIraqand Afghanistan could be especially dangerous for French forces.

The French can expect  a bitter conflict, particulalry when civilian elements loyal to the terorists join in the fighting. The desert front will be much wider and the Malian army cannot block all infiltrations. Whilst the terrorists and their ally Ansar Dine have fled the cities it will be more diffcult to engage them in the mountainous area near the Algerian border.From there they could infiltrate southwards fighting a guerilla war against the French army and their Malian and ECOWAS counterparts.