EIU forecast 2012-2013: concerns over growth
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) global economic forecast raises concerns over growth. Europe is contracting and the US and China are experiencing slower growth.Monetary stimulus can only prevent a deeper downturn.
Source : https://www.marocafrik.com/english/EIU-forecast-20...
The EIU has slightly lowered its growth forcast for 2012 and 2013 with the US loosing momentum and India in difficulties.
The crisis in the euro zone continues to cause global concern, the EIU says and bond yields in Spain and Italy remain high. Demand in the euro zone remains weak as a number of countries suffer austerity measures. This will affect Europe’s trading partners in the developed world and the emerging markets. The EIU has lowered its global trade growth forecast from 4% to 3.7%. In 2011 global trade grew by over 6%.
Central banks are however willing to stimulate their economies and some have reduced borrowing costs. The US Federal Reserve may also be ready to act possibly with more quantative easing. This should provide some support for the world economy in 2012 but continued stimulus of economies means that recovery from the 2008-2009 recession is still slow. The outlook for 2013 is little better. The euro zone real GDP is likely to contract the EIU says by 0.6% in 2012 and austerity will remain in place in most countries.
Emerging markets are being affected by two main factors,the slowdown in China and the continuing euro crisis. Both threaten export demand which is key to emerging market economies despite increased domestic demand in many countries. However the economic prospects in emerging markets are far brighter than in the developed world.
Asia and Australia excluding Japan is likely to achieve real GDP growth of over 6% in 2012 and 2013 and the EIU expects the Chinese economy to bounce back in the second half and expand by 8.1%.
Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will remain constrained in 2012 but higher oil prices will sustain growth in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. The EIU thinks that Sub Saharan African economies will grow by 4.3% in 2012 and 4.7% in 2013.
The crisis in the euro zone continues to cause global concern, the EIU says and bond yields in Spain and Italy remain high. Demand in the euro zone remains weak as a number of countries suffer austerity measures. This will affect Europe’s trading partners in the developed world and the emerging markets. The EIU has lowered its global trade growth forecast from 4% to 3.7%. In 2011 global trade grew by over 6%.
Central banks are however willing to stimulate their economies and some have reduced borrowing costs. The US Federal Reserve may also be ready to act possibly with more quantative easing. This should provide some support for the world economy in 2012 but continued stimulus of economies means that recovery from the 2008-2009 recession is still slow. The outlook for 2013 is little better. The euro zone real GDP is likely to contract the EIU says by 0.6% in 2012 and austerity will remain in place in most countries.
Emerging markets are being affected by two main factors,the slowdown in China and the continuing euro crisis. Both threaten export demand which is key to emerging market economies despite increased domestic demand in many countries. However the economic prospects in emerging markets are far brighter than in the developed world.
Asia and Australia excluding Japan is likely to achieve real GDP growth of over 6% in 2012 and 2013 and the EIU expects the Chinese economy to bounce back in the second half and expand by 8.1%.
Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will remain constrained in 2012 but higher oil prices will sustain growth in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. The EIU thinks that Sub Saharan African economies will grow by 4.3% in 2012 and 4.7% in 2013.
Source : https://www.marocafrik.com/english/EIU-forecast-20...