Assessing the terrorism threat in the Sahel
In its Africa Report no 92 on the 31 March 2005 the International Crisis Group (ICG) asked the question "Islamist terrorism in the Sahel: Fact or Fiction?" and noted that the Pan Saharan Initiative(PSI) by the US had registered a victory.
Source : https://www.marocafrik.com/english/Assessing-the-t...
The Algerian Groupe Salafiste pour la Prédication et le Combat (GSPC) had fought a battle in Chad with troops from Niger and Chad, supported by US special forces. "At the end, 43 Salafi fighters from several West and North African countries lay dead. "
The PSI which had just begun was grabbing more attention than Washington's larger program for East Africa.This band of GSPC militants had captured 32 tourists travelling across the Sahara and held them hostage for several months.After receiving a purported €5 million ransom paid by the German government, the GSPC released the fourteen remaining hostages on 19 August, 2003. They had been chased from Nortehrn Mali through Niger and were caught just inside the Chadian border. As part of the PSI American Marines trained company formations of the armed forces in Niger and Chad in basic infantry skills and US Special Forces trained a company in Mauritania and 3 in Mali. This was not a very large force to cover such a vast area and the report says that the U.S. was considering renaming the PSI, however, as the Trans-Saharan Counter Terrorism Initiative (TSCTI),enlarging it to include Senegal and Morocco with Algeria, Tunisia and Nigeria as observers, and vastly increasing its budget to some $120-$132 million for 2005 and $350-400 million over the next five years.
This was the dawning of the awareness of the vulnerabilty of the Sahel to terrorism. The Group recommended civilian involvement like opening USAID offices in Mauritania,Niger and Chad,agricultural programmes to support livestock infrastructure and roads, supporting tourism infrastructure in Timbuktu and Agadez and greater cooperation with the Nato Mediterranean Dialogue and France's RECAMP programme "in order to multiply effectiveness and diminish perceptions of an American-only venture."
Much has changed of course, if we fast forward to 2012, principally the civil war in Libya, the fall of Gaddafi and the exit from Libya of thousands of heavily armed Tuareg fighters from Libya through Niger to Mali to fight for the creation of the Tuareg homeland in northern Mali with the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad, the MNLA.
The Tuareg have had five rebellions in 1916-17 against the French colonial administration, in 1962-64, then 1990-95 and 2007-2009. The current revolt began on 17January 2011 with attacks on Aguelhoc and Tessalit in Northern Mali and it continues with differing accounts by the Malian Army and the MNLA of its progress.It seems clear that the MNLA is holding a number of locations inthe North of Mali. What is different this time is the number of heavy weapons the MNLA acquired from Gaddafi's armouries. The number of displaced people fleeing from Mali into Niger,Mauritania and Southern Algeria was put at 22,000 by the UN and the Red Cross and is likely to grow. When America left Afghanistan decimated without any support following the defeat and withdrawal of the Soviet Army it laid the way open for Al Qaeda. It is an organisation which thrives on decimated countries and empty spaces.
Worse, there is long term famine as water supplies have diminished and desertification has taken hold. Mali, Niger and Chad are some of the poorest countries in the world and now the spectre of a wasteland and fleeing populations haunts them. Oxfam estimates that Mauritania has a million people at risk of starvation. The assistance programmes mentioned in the ICG report never happened. America was too occupied by Iraq and Afghanistan.
The War Against Terror has petered out in stalemate and now substantial troop reductions caused by economic recession in the USA and Nato countries mean that what they were hestitating to do in 2005 in the Sahel, they can no longer do. The UK following the most drastic budget cuts ever, now could not sustain another campaign like Libya. Now the West hesitates to get involved in Syria and in the Sahel, Algeria is leading the Sahel forces against terrorism which involves the smuggling of drugs, weapons and the taking of hostages all to raise money for future operations. These activities have made the Sahel a no go area for tourists and a precious revenue earner has been lost.Al Qaeda specialises in the maximising dislocation and misery. Today Al Qaeda and Al Shabab in Somalia announce a joint venture on video, like a corporate franchise. American and western commentators scoff at Al Qaeda which they say is weakened and ineffective, but what is happening in Africa if unchecked could revive them.
If you look at the Sahel on the map and then zoom out to look at Africa as a whole, it becomes apparent that this is not just a question of the Sahel. Nigeria with Boko Haram ravaging the North of the country is close to Niger and so far 10,000 people have been displaced into Niger from Mali because of the violence which the authorities do not seem to be able to control. In northern Kenya 40,000 people have been displaced by tribal fighting. Kenyan troops are fighting Al Shabab in Somalia. A UN/AU force is keeping the peace in Sudan. Libya cannot control the militias it raised to fight Gaddafi and Egypt is still going through a democratic transformation which is far from sure. The arrest of American NGO's in Cairo could have shades of the Iranian hostage crisis under President Jimmy Carter. America's power is not what it was in 2005.
Right accross Africa from West to East is a line where Subsaharan Africa meets with the Arab world. In the Sahel they meet and mix.The Tuareg are in the middle of this, their revolts against injustice were met with a depressing succession of failed or partially carried out promises. They have a fascinating culture and a great history. Perhaps they feel that following the enormous arms haul from Libya it is their last chance to stand and fight for Azawad. They are a martial race and gained very relevant experience fighting for Gaddafi and his legacy hangs like a curse over the region, the result of his largesse to African governments and groups like the Tuareg for whom he was the only person to offer them some support. The ICG report in 2005 never mentioned Libya, but such is the nature of the unexpected.
We can but hope that the armed forces of the Sahel governments led by Algeria will be able to win the fight against terror and that the Maghreb countries may be able to aid their Sahel neighbours, because although US and EU assistance is available, it is likely to be up to them to restore the situation. It cannot be a purely military solution and it needs aid and support to the beleaguered poor populations of the Sahel. Failure to do so will yield to generations of unrest. Reuters reports yesterday that the MNLA have taken Tinzawatene and forced Malian troops to withdraw into Southern Algeria. The UN has announced that some 60,000 people have now fled Mali into neighbouring countries. The UN Secretary General has called on the MNLA to halt their offensive.
The PSI which had just begun was grabbing more attention than Washington's larger program for East Africa.This band of GSPC militants had captured 32 tourists travelling across the Sahara and held them hostage for several months.After receiving a purported €5 million ransom paid by the German government, the GSPC released the fourteen remaining hostages on 19 August, 2003. They had been chased from Nortehrn Mali through Niger and were caught just inside the Chadian border. As part of the PSI American Marines trained company formations of the armed forces in Niger and Chad in basic infantry skills and US Special Forces trained a company in Mauritania and 3 in Mali. This was not a very large force to cover such a vast area and the report says that the U.S. was considering renaming the PSI, however, as the Trans-Saharan Counter Terrorism Initiative (TSCTI),enlarging it to include Senegal and Morocco with Algeria, Tunisia and Nigeria as observers, and vastly increasing its budget to some $120-$132 million for 2005 and $350-400 million over the next five years.
This was the dawning of the awareness of the vulnerabilty of the Sahel to terrorism. The Group recommended civilian involvement like opening USAID offices in Mauritania,Niger and Chad,agricultural programmes to support livestock infrastructure and roads, supporting tourism infrastructure in Timbuktu and Agadez and greater cooperation with the Nato Mediterranean Dialogue and France's RECAMP programme "in order to multiply effectiveness and diminish perceptions of an American-only venture."
Much has changed of course, if we fast forward to 2012, principally the civil war in Libya, the fall of Gaddafi and the exit from Libya of thousands of heavily armed Tuareg fighters from Libya through Niger to Mali to fight for the creation of the Tuareg homeland in northern Mali with the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad, the MNLA.
The Tuareg have had five rebellions in 1916-17 against the French colonial administration, in 1962-64, then 1990-95 and 2007-2009. The current revolt began on 17January 2011 with attacks on Aguelhoc and Tessalit in Northern Mali and it continues with differing accounts by the Malian Army and the MNLA of its progress.It seems clear that the MNLA is holding a number of locations inthe North of Mali. What is different this time is the number of heavy weapons the MNLA acquired from Gaddafi's armouries. The number of displaced people fleeing from Mali into Niger,Mauritania and Southern Algeria was put at 22,000 by the UN and the Red Cross and is likely to grow. When America left Afghanistan decimated without any support following the defeat and withdrawal of the Soviet Army it laid the way open for Al Qaeda. It is an organisation which thrives on decimated countries and empty spaces.
Worse, there is long term famine as water supplies have diminished and desertification has taken hold. Mali, Niger and Chad are some of the poorest countries in the world and now the spectre of a wasteland and fleeing populations haunts them. Oxfam estimates that Mauritania has a million people at risk of starvation. The assistance programmes mentioned in the ICG report never happened. America was too occupied by Iraq and Afghanistan.
The War Against Terror has petered out in stalemate and now substantial troop reductions caused by economic recession in the USA and Nato countries mean that what they were hestitating to do in 2005 in the Sahel, they can no longer do. The UK following the most drastic budget cuts ever, now could not sustain another campaign like Libya. Now the West hesitates to get involved in Syria and in the Sahel, Algeria is leading the Sahel forces against terrorism which involves the smuggling of drugs, weapons and the taking of hostages all to raise money for future operations. These activities have made the Sahel a no go area for tourists and a precious revenue earner has been lost.Al Qaeda specialises in the maximising dislocation and misery. Today Al Qaeda and Al Shabab in Somalia announce a joint venture on video, like a corporate franchise. American and western commentators scoff at Al Qaeda which they say is weakened and ineffective, but what is happening in Africa if unchecked could revive them.
If you look at the Sahel on the map and then zoom out to look at Africa as a whole, it becomes apparent that this is not just a question of the Sahel. Nigeria with Boko Haram ravaging the North of the country is close to Niger and so far 10,000 people have been displaced into Niger from Mali because of the violence which the authorities do not seem to be able to control. In northern Kenya 40,000 people have been displaced by tribal fighting. Kenyan troops are fighting Al Shabab in Somalia. A UN/AU force is keeping the peace in Sudan. Libya cannot control the militias it raised to fight Gaddafi and Egypt is still going through a democratic transformation which is far from sure. The arrest of American NGO's in Cairo could have shades of the Iranian hostage crisis under President Jimmy Carter. America's power is not what it was in 2005.
Right accross Africa from West to East is a line where Subsaharan Africa meets with the Arab world. In the Sahel they meet and mix.The Tuareg are in the middle of this, their revolts against injustice were met with a depressing succession of failed or partially carried out promises. They have a fascinating culture and a great history. Perhaps they feel that following the enormous arms haul from Libya it is their last chance to stand and fight for Azawad. They are a martial race and gained very relevant experience fighting for Gaddafi and his legacy hangs like a curse over the region, the result of his largesse to African governments and groups like the Tuareg for whom he was the only person to offer them some support. The ICG report in 2005 never mentioned Libya, but such is the nature of the unexpected.
We can but hope that the armed forces of the Sahel governments led by Algeria will be able to win the fight against terror and that the Maghreb countries may be able to aid their Sahel neighbours, because although US and EU assistance is available, it is likely to be up to them to restore the situation. It cannot be a purely military solution and it needs aid and support to the beleaguered poor populations of the Sahel. Failure to do so will yield to generations of unrest. Reuters reports yesterday that the MNLA have taken Tinzawatene and forced Malian troops to withdraw into Southern Algeria. The UN has announced that some 60,000 people have now fled Mali into neighbouring countries. The UN Secretary General has called on the MNLA to halt their offensive.
Source : https://www.marocafrik.com/english/Assessing-the-t...